#预测市场 Large project week’s IPO lineup is indeed hot, but this time I need to calmly analyze which ones are truly worth following.

Overhaul oversubscribed by 870%, with the price rising from $0.01 to $0.036. This Bonding Curve mechanism essentially means early investors profit from the price difference. But frankly, with a 4% TGE allocation and 26% initial circulation, whether it can support a $33 million FDV depends on whether trading volume can really pick up—whether JumpPad can become an engine for ecosystem memecoins is still uncertain, so I lean towards observing.

Yield Basis is a different story. Backed by Michael Egorov and supported by Curve DAO’s crvUSD lending, this has solid fundamentals. From $50 million in funding at the start of the year to possibly billions in FDV now, this gap usually indicates a rapid shift in market pricing power. The participation rhythm is crucial—initially, 20% of the whitelist was tilted towards high-score users, which can filter out a lot of bots and improve quality.

I see community doubts about Tea and Limitless, especially Tea’s 100% TGE unlock and no airdrop promises, which makes this risk a textbook example of insufficient selling points. Limitless, although with decent trading volume, is in a highly competitive prediction market sector right now. Unless the subscription conditions are particularly favorable, I wouldn’t hold a heavy position.

Goated is the most interesting. GambleFi has never lacked cash flow—monthly active users of 12,000 and net profit of 20 million show that the product itself is profitable. Fixed-price public sale and the whitelist-only session in the first two hours are routine, but the key is the initial FDV of $88 million—this valuation isn’t high relative to cash flow. If the snapshot has ended, I’ll wait for the public sale to see opportunities, aiming to avoid early overexposure.

This week’s IPO logic is: projects with solid fundamentals (Yield Basis, Goated) are worth tracking closely, while those with high hype but flimsy stories (Tea, Overhaul) require risk control. Practice makes perfect, but ultimately, the true participation level in the market will determine the final strategy.