Last night's market was indeed brutal. The group was filled with cries of liquidation, stop-loss orders piled up like mountains, and the rapid shrinking of long positions was jaw-dropping. By this morning, I thought the decline might continue, but upon reviewing the technical indicators, I found something interesting—MACD quietly formed a golden cross on this chaotic candlestick chart.

Is this the start of a counterattack, or a carefully laid trap by the main players? We need to clarify.

**The Truth Behind the Signal**

The MACD golden cross itself isn't that mysterious. Its logic is that the short-term moving average catches up with the long-term moving average, forming a "√" shape on the chart. Traditionally, this is considered a bullish signal, but in the current crypto market, that saying warrants a question mark.

Market sentiment is now in a strange split state. On one hand, retail investors are still cursing the crash, panic is thick, and institutional risk aversion is high; on the other hand, on-chain data is revealing a different story—some whale addresses are quietly accumulating in the early hours, and open interest in derivatives markets is decreasing. These details suggest that some funds are quietly positioning at low levels.

The MACD golden cross may be a reflection of this invisible capital activity. It’s not just a random technical signal; it’s a trace of real fund battles.

**The Key Is Confirmation**

Relying solely on a single golden cross line is far from enough to determine the direction. We need to look at trading volume, on-chain activity, and further changes in derivatives positions. If subsequent candlesticks can hold steady at key levels and volume picks up, then this golden cross truly signals a reversal; if it’s just a fleeting technical rebound, beware of another drop.

That’s how the market works—data speaks, but the key is to listen to the right signals.