#比特币价格走势 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop to 25%, my first reaction isn't surprise, but rather that the market is finally starting to cool down.

Remember the frenzy a few months ago? Every group was shouting "$100,000 is a sure thing," with various influencers hyping it up one after another, and retail investors chasing the high. I've seen too many scenes like that. Now that the probability has fallen from high levels, what does it indicate? It shows that the market's irrational expectations are being corrected, and the narratives based on FOMO making money are losing their effectiveness.

The expectation of $110,000 at only 4% clearly indicates something—extremely optimistic voices are fading. At the same time, the probability of dropping below $80,000 is 22%, which is a warning sign. When such probability divergence appears in the market, it often means the bottom consensus is breaking down, and the upcoming volatility could be fierce.

My advice is: don't let the news of rises and falls lead you by the nose. These predicted probabilities are a double-edged sword; they actually reflect the changing emotions of market participants, not the real fundamentals. Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again? Technical, macro, and policy factors all matter, but the most important thing is—protect what you've already earned, and don't be tempted back to the gambling table by rebounds. Living longer is far more important than winning once.