Record Iran strike bets drive $469M volume on Polymarket, raising insider wallet and market integrity concerns.
Rising tensions in the Middle East triggered record activity on prediction markets. Polymarket posted its highest single-day volume as traders rushed to price in the Iran strikes. At the same time, several wallets captured large profits before official confirmation.
Polymarket Hits $469M Record as Iran Strike Bets Deliver Outsized Profits
Dune data shows Polymarket reached $469 million in single-day notional volume. That figure marks an all-time high for the platform. Last week, political contracts alone accounted for $350 million.
_Image Source: _****Dune
However, trading patterns showed that traders appeared to bet on the strikes before they were confirmed. According to Bubblemaps, at least six connected wallets made about $1.2 million in profit. They placed large bets before the market adjusted the odds.
Once the strikes were announced, prices changed fast, and their positions gained value. Another trader, known as “flydartball,” placed over $170,000 betting that the U.S. would launch missile strikes on Iranian cities. After the strikes were confirmed, the value of that bet rose to nearly $500,000.
Roughly a year ago, the same trader reportedly earned more than $250,000. The profit came from betting on a previous U.S. operation against Iran known as “Midnight Hammer.” The account is wagered on Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, stepping down soon. That position is already showing an unrealized gain of about $56,000.
Another striking example involves a wallet named “Roeyha2026.” According to Lookonchain data, the account was created just 11 hours before the strike confirmation. The wallet placed $50,000 on the U.S. launching strikes on Iran by March 1, 2026. After the announcement, the bet’s value rose to around $96,800, representing a 93% return within hours.
Insider Trading Fears Surface After Timely Geopolitical Bets
When several wallets record large gains around the same geopolitical event, attention follows. Prediction markets are transparent, and wallet activity is publicly visible on-chain. Still, concentrated profits ahead of public confirmation can lead to questions about timing and access to information.
Some market observers are now debating whether access to non-public or classified information played a role. If any trader acted on privileged military intelligence, that would create an unfair advantage over the broader market. Even without proof of misconduct, precise timing from suspected insider wallets fuels suspicion and weakens confidence.
At the same time, regulatory conditions have shifted. Over the past year, the Trump administration has taken a more supportive stance toward crypto-related businesses. That environment has allowed platforms such as Polymarket to expand participation and liquidity.
As political betting grows, calls for closer oversight may follow. Debate now centers on fairness, transparency, and whether additional safeguards are needed if event-driven markets continue to attract large speculative capital.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Encourage innovation! U.S. judges ban Arizona state regulation of prediction markets, and halt the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling laws to prosecute prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, and Kalshi insists that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have reached different decisions regarding prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity42m ago
Gate Stock Zone launches 5 Pre-IPO perpetual contracts from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others on April 13, offering 1–10x leverage trading
Gate News message, according to a Gate official announcement on April 13, 2026
The Gate Stock Trading Zone will be available for the pre-market trading of five USDT-settled perpetual contract order books—OPENAI, ANTHROPIC, ANDURIL, KALSHI, and POLYMARKET—starting on April 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UTC+8). It supports 1x to 10x leverage for long and short positions.
OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research laboratory that has developed products such as ChatGPT and DALL·E. It is currently in the Pre-IPO stage. Anthropic is a large-model company founded by former core members of OpenAI, focusing on secure and reliable AI. Anduril Industries is an AI and autonomous defense technology company co-founded by Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus. Kalshi is a prediction market exchange regulated by the U.S. CFTC. Polymarket is the world’s largest decentralized prediction market.
All contracts calculate prices using a valuation unit of $1 billion. For example, when a company’s valuation is $800 billion, the unit price is $800.
GateAnnouncement2h ago
Polymarket high-win-rate account buys $58k in wagers betting on BLG to beat JDG
The message says that on April 13, a certain account placed a win bet of about $58k on Bilibili Gaming in the League of Legends esports World Cup China qualifiers, with a win rate of over 77%. Bilibili Gaming has been in good form recently, while JD Gaming has performed poorly; the winner will have a chance to advance to the main esports World Cup event.
GateNews3h ago
Polymarket’s fees over the past week reached $9.8 million, a record high
Gate News update, April 13, @defioasis data shows that Polymarket’s weekly platform fees reached $9.8 million in the past week, setting a historical high, with annualized fees exceeding $500 million. In the same period, on-chain prediction market fees first surpassed $10 million for the week, with Polymarket accounting for 96.9% of the market share.
GateNews4h ago
A massive whale has accumulated purchases of $527k to bet on the downfall of the Iranian regime by June 30, and is now down $345k
A whale-sized investor was already down $345k when betting that the Iranian regime would collapse on June 30, and the prior investment also failed. The market’s judgment rules are strict, and only under specific conditions is a regime collapse recognized; ordinary regime change is not considered.
GateNews8h ago
Gate Daily Report (April 13): The CFTC seeks “exclusive regulatory authority” for prediction markets; the FBI report says crypto fraud losses totaled 113.6 billion.
Bitcoin has pulled back from its peak to $71,110. The chair of the U.S. CFTC said it will defend its regulatory authority over prediction markets. An FBI report shows that in 2025, losses from cryptocurrency fraud reached $11.36 billion, with seniors hit the hardest. The market is optimistic in the short term, but you should be mindful of the impact of oil prices and monetary policy.
MarketWhisper12h ago
