The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March is only 7.4%.

U.S. Treasury Department: Mixing tools for legitimate privacy purposes, policy reversal after three years of sanctions

The U.S. Department of the Treasury in its report acknowledged that cryptocurrency mixers can be used for legitimate financial privacy and recommended legislation to establish a freezing law that allows financial institutions to temporarily freeze suspicious digital assets. At the same time, the report disclosed data on North Korea using mixers for money laundering and proposed compliance recommendations for decentralized finance. This shift in stance stems from federal court rulings and assessments of the impact of mixers.

The Federal Reserve has a 95.5% probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in March.

Gate News Report, March 9 — CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4.5%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 95.5%. For April, the combined probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 17.7%, the probability of no change is 81.7%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.7%. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in June is 41.5%.

ETH 15-minute increase of 0.87%: Institutional capital inflows and network upgrades jointly drive the price upward

From 19:00 to 19:15 (UTC) on March 8, 2026, the price of ETH increased by 0.87% within 15 minutes. The candlestick price range was 1928.05 to 1950.21 USDT, with a volatility of 1.15%. During this fluctuation, market volatility intensified, mainstream investors' attention increased, and short-term trading activity on-chain and in the spot market became active. The main driving forces behind this fluctuation stem from macro liquidity easing and continuous allocation of institutional funds. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100 basis points in Q1 2026, combined with sustained net inflows of institutional and ETF funds, with institutional holdings of ETH exceeding 1

Aave Founder: RWA is the biggest opportunity in DeFi recently, but caution is needed as institutions may use DeFi as an exit liquidity channel

Aave founder Stani.eth pointed out that the private credit market is under pressure due to Federal Reserve rate hikes, with rising borrowing costs leading to stock price declines and redemption pressures for many funds. He mentioned that risk scenarios and DeFi investors should be cautious of high-yield RWA risks, emphasizing that on-chain private credit can offer transparency and security advantages that traditional finance cannot provide.

Raoul Pal: Global liquidity and BTC correlation reach 90%, and the market is in a historically oversold state

Raoul Pal stated on March 8th that global liquidity is a key macro factor, highly correlated with BTC and NDX since 2012, with an annual growth of about 10%. He pointed out that liquidity remains loose and predicted that the US will further cut interest rates to stimulate disposable income. The crypto market is currently oversold, and the next two weeks will be a critical period to watch.

U.S. financial regulators bypass Basel Accords to promote the development of tokenized securities, with several major financial institutions launching pilot programs

The U.S. financial regulatory agencies led by Trump are bypassing the Basel Accords to promote the development of tokenized securities, believing that technology-neutral regulatory strategies should be provided. Several financial institutions have taken this opportunity to initiate related pilot projects.