ThisNameIsn_tBad.

If you miss out on Bitcoin, you'll miss out on Ethereum; if you miss out on Ethereum, you'll miss out on altcoins.
The first layer, the Bitcoin stage, filters for trend and cycle awareness. Those who miss out on Bitcoin lack trend-following behavior and cycle awareness. They constantly interpret short-term fluctuations, treat oscillations and news as directions, and see pullbacks as reversals. The lowest points clearly appear, but due to a lack of mid-term thinking, they can only jump back and forth in emotions, ultimately repeatedly missing the main trend.
The second layer, the Ethereum stage

#我的2026第一条帖
Before the tail truly starts, the number of bears is definitely the highest, and it’s not naturally formed; it’s been “nurtured” layer by layer by the market. Look at the monthly chart, which has already fallen dozens of times, forming an almost ground-hugging straight line. Logically, no one should have the courage to short at this point, but the reality is quite the opposite. The bearish sentiment is actually the most unified, and the reason is very simple:
First, trend memory.
People don’t trade based on price alone; they look at “what has happened in the past” in trading. Afte

Bitcoin is currently oscillating within a strong support zone. Combining with past Bitcoin long-term bull and bear cycle transitions, this bull market has clearly extended. A significant reason is institutional entry, with large capital inflows overall. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts have not ended, so a bear market is not imminent. It can only be said that the overall market fluctuations will become smaller and the scale will become larger. This is an inevitable and necessary path for Bitcoin.
This period has been quite painful for traders. Either they make small profits and lo

As Bitcoin and Ethereum make their way back to the door, this is already the third time such a trend has occurred. The entire market shows clear signs of bottoming out, but the rebound has struggled to break through the bottleneck for a long time. At this point, it is important to watch out for larger-scale corrections.
Do you know why Bitcoin hasn't recovered since dropping from over 120,000 USD in October? From a macro perspective, it’s easier to see the fundamental reasons:
The cryptocurrency market has fallen by about 1 trillion USD from its peak. Most of the core reasons are caused by maj

2025 is coming to an end soon, and many people are beginning to look ahead to the 2026 crypto market: "Will there be a bull run next year? Which assets should I allocate?" But I want to first give everyone a cold shower: don't be fooled by the Federal Reserve's "policy fog"! The 2026 crypto market will present both opportunities and risks, and the risks may be more deadly than the opportunities. In this article today, I will analyze the Federal Reserve's policy trends to outline three core opportunities and two deadly risks for 2026, helping you avoid detours and make more money in the new yea

The Fed's interest rate cut script for 2026 is gradually emerging— and the market's response is no longer speculation but real money voting with actual investments.
Just look at the attitudes of major institutions. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley jointly issued a warning: the Fed will cut rates twice in 2026, with a minimum of 50 basis points each time. Citibank is even more aggressive, predicting a 75 basis point cut. This is not empty talk—these institutions are putting their money on the table.
The reasons supporting this expectation are quite solid. Inflation data continues to converge to

Altcoin Season Faces Risks as Worrying Chart Patterns Emerge
This week, the Altcoin Season Index continues its downward trend, with Bitcoin's dominance accelerating higher.
The index tracks the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin( $BTC ), falling to 15, the lowest level this year. As most altcoins remain in loss, this downward trend persists.
Data shows that only a few cryptocurrencies have gained in the past 90 days. Pippin token surged over 2,300%, making it the best-performing major token. Other notable gains include$ZEC , Dash, Monero, and Merlin Chain.
On the other hand, tokens li

#比特币与黄金战争 **Dogecoin's True Test: How Long Can Community Consensus Hold?**
A MEME coin that has attracted nearly 100 million holders worldwide. The driving forces behind this are simple—key figures' statements, social media buzz, and a resilient community. But whenever market sentiment cools down, the real questions surface: besides the story, does this thing have anything else?
Honestly, the payment ecosystem is still in its early stages. Features like tipping on certain platforms and acceptance of merchandise as payment are positive signals. But to sustain long-term value, these alone are no

The market trend structure has been disrupted during these two holiday days. The upward trend has started to decline, which is an invisible form of trap. Additionally, a large number of Bitcoin options are expiring recently, adding some challenges to this already fragile market. The recent decline is partly due to these factors. Once these negative factors are out of the way, a rebound is expected.
Currently, the support level for Bitcoin on the smaller timeframe is around 86,500. If this level is broken, Bitcoin is likely to test the previous low of around 84,500. The current trend is a oscil

Recently, this pattern of ups and downs, sharp surges and plunges, and needle-like movements back and forth has been tormenting many short-sellers—profits suddenly expand and then vanish instantly, stop-losses triggered repeatedly. After experiencing several cycles of “gaining and losing, losing and gaining,” most people instinctively choose to close their positions and wait when the price returns near their cost basis, rather than continuing to stubbornly short. Because after going through this process three times, most no longer believe they will have such good luck again. Unless you are the

Global assets have reached new highs, but the crypto world has remained stagnant for the past four years, even regressing. The Fed has been aggressively implementing point shaving during this period, and risk assets are the most sensitive. However, this sensitivity does not need to be immediately reflected in the market data; it occurs at the moment price fluctuations begin. Previously, after Bitcoin experienced a 30% pullback, it consolidated for about three months. This time, if we calculate from early October, it seems similar. The market data has about 10 days left to form a fluctuation st

Is this the last bull run for encryption? I don't think so. I have always believed that there will always be bull runs in the crypto market. It's just that future bull runs are likely to manifest differently. It won't be like before—where altcoins were soaring every day, and prices pumped at random, with various concept coins being speculated wildly. The future bull run is more likely to resemble the traditional stock market. The market will gradually return to a value system, focusing on whether it can create value, rather than pure air and pure stories.
Funds and attent

The current "alts residual value ratio" has fallen to the lowest level in history. Stablecoins hold their position, while BTC and ETH have siphoned off almost all Liquidity, sealing off the top 30 pools, leaving the remaining alts with nothing but residual value scraping the ground. However, there is a law in the crypto world that has never changed. The spring is not at rest; it is compressed. The longer it is pressed and the harder it is pressed, the more outrageous the release will be. Every cycle is like this: extremely concentrated, extremely desolate, extremely undervalued, and then sudde

Now playing altcoin contracts, the sharpest knife isn't the big dump or big pump, but the funding rate that many people haven't understood. This thing was originally used to balance both long and short sides, but now it has become a weapon for high control market makers to accurately play people for suckers. Simply put, the funding rate is a "balancing fee" that both long and short sides pay to each other in perpetual futures, to prevent the contract price from straying too far from the spot price. Under normal circumstances, this fee is calculated every 8 hours, and the rate is very l

Is frequent trading during the altcoin season necessary?
Because frequent trading essentially turns retail investors' original 60% win rate into a 10% one by their own hands.
Let me explain this in three layers.
The first layer: the main force's rhythm is continuous, while your operations are fragmented. The altcoin season is never just about a single K-line; it's a whole chain: old coins testing the market, sentiment uplift, new coins leading the rise, capital diffusion. The main force profits from large waves, while you focus on the emotional fluctuations of a few K-lines. The chain is not a

Investor Overview.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Intraday dynamics on December 18, 2025.
Short-term forecast for December 19, 2025.
Brief summary:
On December 18, 2025, Bitcoin showed moderate intraday volatility, forming a local high in the morning followed by a controlled correction. This fluctuation did not indicate panic selling, aligning with an orderly adjustment of short-term positions.
(BTC/USD) Key price indicators:
06:25 - $86,889.9;
09:18 - $86,864.5;
12:07 - $87,416.1;
21:08 - $85,726.6;
22:53 - $84,990.9.
Intraday high: $87,416.1.
Intraday low: $84,990.9.
Intraday volatility: approximately 2.

A certain move pushed interest rates to the highest in 30 years, but it's not about rate hikes; it's about shifting the entire global leverage root.
Market sentiment is now very delicate.
On one side, people say:
"Japan's rate hike has been priced in, and the impact is minimal."
On the other side, the Bank of Japan is quietly signaling:
0.75% is not the end, 1% might not even be a neutral rate.
You need to understand one thing:
The truly dangerous macro events are never about the "first move," but about the "confirmation of direction."
And this time, Japan is sending a very clear signal—
👉 Th

Powell still has about 6 months before the resignation window, and this matter is no longer about "whether there will be a change," but rather "who will replace him and when the market will start pricing in it."
Treasury Secretary Yellen has already explicitly stated that she is unwilling to take this position, essentially opting out. The market's current default best guess is Haskett.
Why him?
First, he has an extremely clear stance. Haskett openly supports cryptocurrencies, which is very crucial in the current political environment.
Second, he has repeatedly emphasized that "current economic

One thought leads to heaven, one thought leads to hell. The sharpest trading in December. #JapanInterestRateHike
$BTC
Crypto market seasonal arbitrage opportunities: short BTC/ETH, go all-in on FIL+ZEC!

By the end of 2025, the crypto market will enter a "polarization" phase—mainstream coins face dual pressure from technical and macro factors, while privacy coins and storage track leaders rise against the trend. Today, we dissect a precise arbitrage strategy: selectively short Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), while going long on Filecoin (FIL) and Zcash (ZEC). Using data and logic, we show you

#加密市场观察 How will Japan's interest rate hike affect the crypto market, and could there be a black swan?
The likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on December 19, 2025, is very high. The market generally expects a 25 basis point hike to 0.75%, with an over 80% probability. A former BOJ official predicts that there could be three more rate hikes after this, with the final rate reaching 1.5%.
The upcoming rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) centers around withdrawing the "cheap yen" that has supported global high-risk assets for decades, which will trigger a severe market reasses