The year-end is approaching, and the US job market is shrouded in uncertainty. Citigroup economists recently sent a signal: beware, the unemployment benefit data during the holiday season might be "playing tricks," especially when initial jobless claims suddenly dropped to 199,000 last week — well below market expectations, but with some exaggeration.
Citigroup's analysis is straightforward: "This year's seasonal adjustment for holiday weeks is much more complicated than in previous years. To see the true picture of the employment market, we may have to wait until late January." The good news is that current data remains relatively stable, and there are no signs of large-scale layoffs by companies.
However, the December non-farm payrolls report next week could serve as a "wake-up call" for the market. It is expected that non-farm employment growth will slow to 75,000, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.7%. Why is this happening? Simply put, the labor force participation rate is starting to rise again — people who had previously exited the job market are re-entering to find work, which directly increases the baseline of the unemployment rate.
If this forecast materializes, it could have a significant impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations. The slowdown in employment growth coupled with a modest rise in the unemployment rate may further convince the market that the rate hike cycle has ended, and the window for rate cuts is gradually opening.
We will see next week. Will this non-farm payroll report prove that the employment market still has resilience, or is it a sign that the economy is beginning to gently brake? All answers are in the data. #Strategy加码BTC配置 $ETH
Citigroup's analysis is straightforward: "This year's seasonal adjustment for holiday weeks is much more complicated than in previous years. To see the true picture of the employment market, we may have to wait until late January." The good news is that current data remains relatively stable, and there are no signs of large-scale layoffs by companies.
However, the December non-farm payrolls report next week could serve as a "wake-up call" for the market. It is expected that non-farm employment growth will slow to 75,000, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.7%. Why is this happening? Simply put, the labor force participation rate is starting to rise again — people who had previously exited the job market are re-entering to find work, which directly increases the baseline of the unemployment rate.
If this forecast materializes, it could have a significant impact on Federal Reserve policy expectations. The slowdown in employment growth coupled with a modest rise in the unemployment rate may further convince the market that the rate hike cycle has ended, and the window for rate cuts is gradually opening.
We will see next week. Will this non-farm payroll report prove that the employment market still has resilience, or is it a sign that the economy is beginning to gently brake? All answers are in the data. #Strategy加码BTC配置 $ETH
