Grayscale predicts Bitcoin could reach a new peak in 2026, dismissing concerns about a recession.

Grayscale Research has just released a report stating that Bitcoin has the potential to set a new all-time high price in 2026, countering concerns that this cryptocurrency is entering a prolonged deep decline.

In a report released on Monday, Grayscale emphasized that Bitcoin is unlikely to follow the “four-year cycle” – the common belief that the price of Bitcoin often peaks and then experiences a significant correction every four years, synchronized with the halving schedule.

“Although the outlook remains uncertain, we believe that the four-year cycle theory will not hold true, and the price of Bitcoin has the potential to reach new highs next year,” analysts at Grayscale commented.

Since the beginning of October, Bitcoin has experienced a period of strong volatility, falling about 32% from its peak price for most of November. The price of Bitcoin reached 84,000 USD on Monday before recovering to 86,700 USD currently.

Grayscale notes that long-term investors often benefit from holding through periods of volatility, but they need to “endure significant price falls” during this process. Adjustments of 25% or more, the company adds, are common in a bull market and do not necessarily signal the beginning of a prolonged downtrend.

Breaking the four-year cycle

Grayscale points out several reasons why Bitcoin could break free from the traditional four-year cycle.

According to Grayscale, unlike previous bull cycles, the current cycle has not seen the parabolic rise that usually leads to a strong reversal. The current market also witnesses institutional capital focusing on trading products on the (ETP) exchange and digital asset treasury instead of retail investor activities on the spot exchange.

The macro context still remains relatively supportive, with the possibility of interest rate cuts and bipartisan momentum for crypto legislation in the US providing additional advantages for the market.

Tom Lee, CEO of the Ethereum BitMine treasury company, also shares a similar view with Grayscale, noting the increasing divergence between the fundamental indicators and the market price.

“Crypto prices have continuously fallen, even as the fundamentals – measured by the number of wallets, on-chain data, transaction fees, or tokenization – have all improved,” Lee wrote on X on Monday. “Therefore, the risk/reward ratio is attractive for BTC and ETH.”

Lee also shared with CNBC on the same day that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin and predicts that the largest cryptocurrency in the world will set a new record price in January next year.

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