Dogecoin faces a sell wall of 11.72 billion DOGE – Can the bulls overcome this barrier?

Dogecoin—the largest memecoin by market capitalization, currently around $23.28 billion—remains under heavy selling pressure as investor sentiment turns increasingly negative. Over the past year, DOGE has lost up to 67% of its value, indicating a prolonged weakening trend with no signs of stopping. In the most recent session, this coin continued to plunge, dropping another 2.4% in the past 24 hours, clearly reflecting the negative trend dominating the market.

Amid this bleak picture, some important signals have started to emerge, drawing the attention of investors. According to Coin Photon, these indicators could play a key role in shaping the upcoming trend for Dogecoin (DOGE).

No “Bubble” Present

Market signals are indicating that DOGE may have entered a lengthy accumulation cycle. This assessment is reinforced by the Bubble Risk Model (Bubble Risk Model), as the current index shows investor sentiment remains subdued.

Typically, these signals are associated with correction risks when an asset is overvalued. However, in the current context, the indicator’s continued downward trend actually reflects a quiet accumulation process rather than a massive distribution phase.

Source: Alphractal Notably, this development aligns perfectly with the surge in on-chain activity, suggesting that capital is quietly returning to the market as investors gradually increase their positions.

Data from Santiment shows that the number of daily active addresses has surged, reaching 73,560 addresses according to the latest chart update, further supporting the case for an emerging accumulation phase.

Is Demand Really Increasing?

The key question now is whether demand for DOGE in the market is truly increasing—and current data is partly supporting that positive scenario.

The main momentum comes from the spot market (spot), where individual investors have maintained a net buying position for the past week. The Exchange Netflow index—a measure of whether buyers or sellers dominate—continues to favor buyers, reflecting strong demand.

Specifically, in the recent period, about $3 million worth of DOGE has been accumulated, raising the total net buying value for the week to around $50 million, equivalent to more than 2% of Dogecoin’s market capitalization.

Source: CoinGlass However, total trading volume is still declining, indicating that market sentiment is not yet truly robust and could continue to put pressure on DOGE’s overall outlook.

Nevertheless, the marked improvement in retail investor demand in the spot market is creating positive expectations, and DOGE could potentially see a significant upward move in the coming days, targeting the area above $0.14 on the chart.

Strong Resistance Ahead

DOGE’s upside potential is still quite fragile, while the risk of a deep correction remains present. Data from the liquidation chart shows that about 11.72 billion DOGE is clustered around the $0.20 level, forming a massive “supply wall” that could put considerable downward pressure on the price.

Source: Glassnode This means that if retail investor capital pushes DOGE’s price close to this resistance zone, the market could witness a sharp reversal due to heavy selling pressure. Currently, the $0.20 level remains one of the most dangerous technical barriers, directly threatening DOGE’s price trend in upcoming trading sessions.

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