MSTR stock price drops 8%, Strategy mNAV hits a new all-time low: Will Michael Saylor sell Bitcoin?

As MSTR’s stock price drops more than 8% in a single day, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is facing new market pressures. Despite the company’s recent investment of approximately $950 million to acquire 10,645 Bitcoins, the market has not responded positively. Its core valuation metric, mNAV (enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings market cap ratio), has fallen to a historic low of 1.10, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of its Bitcoin strategy.

Data shows that Strategy’s current enterprise value is approximately between $60.5 billion and $64.3 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings market cap is about $57.9 billion. As Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped to $85,304 in the past 24 hours, the mNAV also declined by about 5.9%. Analysts point out that if Bitcoin continues to weaken—especially amid market fears over potential changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan—mNAV could further approach the critical psychological threshold of 1.

Regarding stock performance, MSTR closed Monday at $162.08, with an almost 45% decline year-to-date. Trading volume has significantly increased, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Some investors worry that the company’s ongoing stock issuance to finance Bitcoin purchases could lead to further dilution of common shares. Since the beginning of the year, the dilution of common stock has approached $900 million, and market expectations of its stock price falling to $130–$150 by year-end are gaining momentum.

Nevertheless, Strategy’s management remains confident about the long-term outlook. CEO Phong Le stated that Bitcoin is a “generational macro asset,” and the company’s strategic goal is to outperform Bitcoin itself over the long term. He noted that since Strategy adopted its Bitcoin strategy, Bitcoin has gained approximately 45%, while MSTR’s stock price has increased about 62%, demonstrating the potential advantages of leveraged Bitcoin exposure.

Regarding whether to sell Bitcoin, market attention is particularly focused on Michael Saylor’s stance. Management emphasized that the company currently holds about $1.44 billion in cash reserves, sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends on preferred stock for the next two years, without needing to sell Bitcoin. At the same time, Phong Le also explicitly stated that only if mNAV falls below 1 would the company consider selling its Bitcoin assets.

Overall, the record low in mNAV has intensified market divisions over Strategy’s heavy reliance on its Bitcoin strategy. In the short term, MSTR’s stock price and Bitcoin’s price may remain under pressure, but whether a Bitcoin sell-off is truly triggered still depends on whether mNAV breaks below this critical red line of 1.