Tom Lee strongly advocates for Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the Wall Street financial strategy fund Fundstrat backing him provides a significantly different report. The reasons for the two different scenarios are due to differing risk control perspectives.
(Background: As Ethereum drops below $2800, BitMine adds 30,000 ETH, holding over 3.3% of the supply)
(Additional background: Ondo Finance teams up with LayerZero to launch a “Securities Cross-Chain Bridge”: seamless transfer of tokenized stocks and ETFs, now supporting Ethereum and BSC)
The nickname “Crypto forever bull” has been associated with Tom Lee, who repeatedly declares in financial media interviews that Bitcoin and Ethereum will break their all-time highs by January 2026. However, the internal report from Fundstrat presents a completely opposite price range.
Previously, Fundstrat Digital Asset Strategy Director Sean Farrell leaked a report sent to paying clients, describing the first half of 2026 as a “deep retracement window.” The low points for the three major cryptocurrencies are: BTC $60,000 to $65,000, ETH $1800 to $2000, SOL $50 to $75.
The Original Sin of Sell-Side Research
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X explaining this phenomenon, pointing out that the role of sell-side analysts is not to predict but to maintain trading willingness. He commented:
Tom Lee is a steadfast bull, with a bullish to bearish ratio of about 10 to 0. When a correction becomes unavoidable, he briefly acknowledges the downside, shifting to about 9 to 1.
Viewed in relative terms, that is alpha.
It is probably the fate of being in sell-side… pic.twitter.com/nsTHSTreKG
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) December 20, 2025
Key Variables at the Start of 2026
Sean Farrell’s report attributes the decline mainly to the potential escalation of tariff disputes in Trump’s second year in office and the slowdown in AI investment returns, which increase risk aversion. If these two forces ferment simultaneously, “high Beta” crypto assets will be hit hardest. The report describes SOL’s price as a thermometer of market deleveraging; falling to around $50 indicates that leverage has been cleaned out, and institutions will start re-accumulating.
It is worth noting that Fundstrat views this retracement as a “re-entry” rather than the start of a “bear market.” For institutions, cash and liquidity are available, and low prices are an opportunity to pick up chips. But for retail investors entering at high levels, it could mean assets being cut in half.
So who is Tom Lee shouting to? The conclusion is simple: no matter how high he calls, it’s all for institutions.
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