Is the capital shifting again towards "digital gold"? XAUT surges strongly; will Bitcoin in 2026 repeat its 2025 trend?

The macroeconomic fluctuations of 2025 have once again made “safe-haven assets” a central topic in the market. Looking at the year-end performance, the answer is quite clear: gold has regained dominance. Traditional gold prices rose nearly 65 throughout the year, reaching a historic high of $4,500 at one point, reinforcing its safe-haven properties during uncertain cycles. In stark contrast, Bitcoin declined about 6.3% at year-end, and its narrative as “digital gold” faced significant challenges.

The US economy experienced multiple shocks in 2025, including inflation pressures, fiscal uncertainties, and government shutdown risks. Against this backdrop, capital favored safe assets over high-volatility risk assets, which is the core reason behind the outstanding performance of gold and tokenized gold XAUT. Although signs of macroeconomic improvement appeared towards the end of 2025—such as the November inflation rate dropping to 2.7%, and core CPI and PCE indicators even falling below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—the signs of funds flowing back into Bitcoin remained limited.

From the fourth quarter’s performance, market divergence was particularly evident. XAUT rose about 13% in the fourth quarter, while Bitcoin fell approximately 24% during the same period. This gap prompted market reflection: are investors no longer solely concerned about volatility but actively seeking “more secure returns”? If this trend continues, the growth in XAUT holdings may indicate that before 2026, the crypto market will still maintain a structural divergence between risk assets and safe-haven assets.

Changes in capital flows are also reflected in specific behaviors. In 2025, China’s influence in the commodities market became increasingly apparent. Previously, silver surged by 147% due to export restrictions, and now market attention has shifted to gold. China’s largest gold producer, Zijin Mining, accelerated overseas acquisitions, reflecting confidence in long-term demand for gold. Against this macro background, XAUT’s strong performance is not accidental.

On-chain data also provides supporting evidence. Lookonchain shows that after a whale lost about $18.8 million in ETH transactions, it quickly shifted funds into gold-related assets. Meanwhile, multiple wallets collectively spent about $13.7 million to purchase 3,102 XAUT tokens. Such behavior appears to be preemptive positioning, indicating that some funds are engaging in defensive allocations in anticipation of potential macro uncertainties.

Overall, if capital continues to favor tokenized safe-haven assets like gold, Bitcoin may face a similar phase divergence in 2026 as in 2025. The inverse relationship between XAUT and BTC could become an important clue for observing the next stage of the crypto market.