While retail investors sell off, giant whales increase their holdings by 50,000 Bitcoins. Who is right and who is wrong?

Written by: Blockchain Knight

At the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin broke through $94,000, reaching a new high in over a month, signaling the possible end of the market stagnation at the end of 2025.

Compared to the dull performance of the same period last year, this rebound has achieved a decisive reversal in market sentiment, driven primarily by favorable macroeconomic conditions, recovering institutional demand, and healthy market mechanisms.

On the macro level, the shift in the US economic landscape provides support for Bitcoin.

First, the US Treasury yield curve has moved away from its inverted state from 2022 to 2024, with short-term easing expectations coexisting with long-term high yields, prompting re-pricing of duration risk and credit risk.

Second, the structural weakening of the US dollar, although stable at its core, is being controlled in its depreciation. Policy guidance enhances trade competitiveness, making this combination favorable for assets with defensive characteristics.

Meanwhile, the ETF sell-off wave at the end of 2025 slowed down, and in the first two trading days of 2026, Bitcoin ETF net inflows exceeded $1 billion, with institutional capital returning to the market.

After experiencing significant deleveraging, the derivatives market saw Bitcoin futures open interest drop from a peak of $98 billion in October to $58 billion. The annualized financing rate of 5.8% has returned to the long-term median, and the market has shifted back to a spot-driven mode.

Whales holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoins have accumulated an additional 56,227 coins since December 17, while retail wallets have taken profits, shifting from weak investors to long-term holders.

Market bullish expectations have also risen in tandem. Demand for $100,000 call options expiring in January on the Deribit platform surged, while put option premiums diminished.

Notably, recently, US bank-owned wealth management platforms, including Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Securities, will allow advisors to recommend cryptocurrency exchange-traded products.

Internal assessments within these institutions suggest that for clients able to withstand price volatility, allocating 1% to 4% of their funds is reasonable, which could further boost capital inflows.