Is the fifth wave of Bitcoin approaching or a deep correction? Analyst: BTC may first drop to the $70,000 range

January 20 News, as the cryptocurrency market continues to fluctuate at high levels, several analysts have pointed out that Bitcoin may be at a critical juncture in this bull market, with the risk of further decline in the short term. Although the long-term structure has not been completely broken, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are continuously suppressing market sentiment.

Over the past week, Bitcoin briefly rose but then clearly retreated. Data shows that in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price fell from $95,467 to around $92,263, and it is currently hovering around $93,000. While the weekly and monthly charts still show slight gains, upward momentum has clearly slowed.

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of digital asset financial services company Ledn, believes that the current market is still in the fourth wave correction stage of Elliott Wave Theory, and has not yet officially entered the fifth wave. He pointed out that if the trend continues to retrace, Bitcoin may first decline to the $71,000 to $84,000 range before potentially entering the final upward wave. A key validation signal is whether the price can regain above $104,000 or break below $80,000.

Meanwhile, Nick Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, stated that Bitcoin has lost the important technical support of $94,000, which was a key trendline during the breakout in January. Under the influence of tariff comments and geopolitical uncertainties, market risk appetite has declined, with short-term strong support around $88,000. If it falls below $90,000, it could trigger further reduction of ETF-related funds after the US stock market opens.

From a macro perspective, Samer Hasn, senior analyst at XS.com, pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent correction is mainly due to profit-taking and risk-avoidance sentiment stacking. Uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence, US political risks, and US-Europe and US-China relations are dominating asset pricing logic. He believes that although there is short-term pressure, from a long-term perspective, Bitcoin and hard assets like gold are gradually being viewed as important tools for hedging systemic risks.

Against the backdrop of upcoming US PCE inflation data, the Davos Forum, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, liquidity conditions may tighten further. Analysts generally believe that the core variables in current Bitcoin price forecasts have shifted from purely on-chain and technical factors to more complex geopolitical and macroeconomic games.