Arthur Hayes Analysis: How Trump's Tariffs and Exchange Rate Policies Affect Bitcoin Trends

January 27 News, China’s response to President Trump’s tariff policies is quietly affecting global capital flows, even impacting the Bitcoin market. Since Trump took office, the United States has imposed high tariffs on nearly all Chinese imported goods, with an average level of about 29.3%. In response, China has maintained strict control over the RMB exchange rate to preserve export competitiveness and curb deflation, thereby stabilizing capital flow cycles under trade pressure.

A report from J.P. Morgan notes that China’s exchange rate management strategy helps strengthen the US dollar-dominated global liquidity during periods of trade tension. This operational approach indirectly influences Bitcoin prices: when risk aversion intensifies and US dollar liquidity tightens, Bitcoin may decline; conversely, when trade tensions ease or capital flows recover, Bitcoin has room to rebound. During the trade escalation from March to April last year, Bitcoin’s movements reflected this logic.

Arthur Hayes also emphasizes that trade agreements are often superficial; real market adjustments occur through foreign exchange policies, capital account tools, and liquidity management by the Treasury. China’s interactions between RMB controls, tariff strategies, and US dollar liquidity shape the macro environment for Bitcoin trading.

J.P. Morgan Asia Outlook indicates that despite intensive tariffs from the US, China’s exports to the US account for less than 10%, yet the export engine remains robust, with an expected real export growth of about 8% in 2025 and a global market share rising to approximately 15%. The RMB/USD exchange rate remains within a low-volatility range, with policymakers prioritizing export competitiveness, controlling deflation risks, and maintaining market liquidity stability.

This macro environment suggests that Bitcoin market volatility is more driven by global liquidity transmission rather than RMB appreciation alone. Investors should pay attention to US-China trade tensions, US dollar liquidity, and RMB exchange rate management, as these factors could trigger Bitcoin price adjustments or trading opportunities at critical moments.