Taiwan stocks closed for the Lunar New Year on February 11, entering the Year of the Horse, with global capital markets continuing to operate. Key events during the Lunar New Year include US GDP and global PMI releases, with NVIDIA’s earnings report on February 26 being the biggest focus. The five major market trends include emerging markets outperforming US stocks, small- and mid-cap stocks leading blue chips, AI hardware outperforming software, and more. Risk tracking is focused on four assets: IGV, MOVE, silver, and Bitcoin.
Economic Calendar During the Lunar New Year: GDP and PMI as Key Indicators
Taiwan stocks closed until the 2026 Lunar New Year, with important economic indicators to watch including the UK (February 12), Taiwan (February 13), Japan (February 16), and the US (February 20), all releasing 4Q/25 GDP data. Japan and Taiwan, as producers and exporters of AI equipment, are major contributors to economic growth, but investors should pay attention to Japan’s private consumption performance, which is a key factor in the Bank of Japan’s decision on whether to raise interest rates early.
In Taiwan, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) will also release revised GDP estimates for 2026 alongside the data. Market expectations are for Taiwan’s 4Q/25 GDP growth rate to reach 12.7%, with the 2026 estimate possibly being revised upward to 4% when the data is released on February 13. Strong economic growth will likely keep the central bank on hold, with Taiwan’s robust semiconductor exports being the main driver, exemplified by TSMC’s January revenue surpassing NT$400 billion.
In the US, market expectations for 4Q/25 GDP growth are around 2.9% annualized, benefiting from real income growth, wealth effects, and holiday promotions on e-commerce platforms. Personal consumption is expected to grow over 3%. Despite the longest government shutdown in history, a sluggish housing market, and structural issues like K-shaped consumption, the US economy remains resilient. The GDP report could cause market volatility regarding Fed rate cut expectations, but the final outcome will still depend on inflation and employment data.
On February 20, S&P Global will release PMI reports for the US, Eurozone, UK, Australia, Japan, and India. PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a leading economic indicator, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. The simultaneous release of global PMI data will provide a comprehensive assessment of the global economic health.
In terms of monetary policy, attention is on the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for February 18. Recent lower-than-expected inflation data may narrow the divergence among officials’ views on inflation compared to the 4Q/25 meeting. Central banks in multiple countries will hold policy meetings, with market expectations for interest rates to remain unchanged, including Egypt and Russia on February 13, New Zealand on February 18, and the Philippines on February 19.
Geopolitically, the Munich Security Conference from February 13 to 15 is noteworthy. The February 9 release of the 2026 Munich Security Report warns that US President Trump and leaders with similar stances are contributing to the destruction of the post-World War II international order. US Secretary of State Blinken will deliver a speech on February 14, focusing on European countries’ collective defense commitments and the US’s efforts to reshape security strategies.
Key Highlights of 45 Companies’ Earnings Reports During the 2026 Lunar New Year
As of the week of February 6, all but NVIDIA (which will report on February 26) among the Mag 7 have released earnings. The LSEG’s tracking of S&P 500 earnings revisions shows a four-week average increase to 0.15. As of February 10, 324 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, marking the mid-point of earnings season. Revenue and earnings growth are currently at 9.0% and 12.8%, respectively, outperforming market estimates of 8.7% and 12.3%. The proportion exceeding expectations is 65.9% for revenue and 78.95% for earnings.
Revenue beats are led by the energy sector, with 100% surpassing estimates (11 reported, 23 pending). Earnings are led by the information technology sector (37/64), with a 97.3% beat rate, and the communications sector (15/26), with an 86.6% beat rate. This outperformance supports the resilience of US stocks amid pullbacks.
During the 2026 Lunar New Year, 45 companies will report earnings in the week of February 16, accounting for 7.8% of total market capitalization. Major US companies reporting include:
Earnings Calendar During the 2026 Lunar New Year
February 12: Applovin, McDonald’s, American Electric Power
February 13: Coinbase, Applied Materials, Moderna
February 18: Palo Alto Networks, Constellation Energy
February 19: DoorDash, Western Oil, Walmart
February 26: NVIDIA (biggest focus)
Coinbase’s earnings will reveal how crypto exchanges performed during the market correction. Applied Materials, as a semiconductor equipment supplier, will reflect investment intensity in AI infrastructure. Walmart’s results serve as a barometer of US consumer health. However, NVIDIA’s earnings on February 26 are undoubtedly the biggest focus, directly influencing market perceptions of the AI investment cycle.
Market consensus suggests that earnings growth for the Mag 7 and S&P 493 will narrow in 4Q/26, mainly due to the high base effect from 4Q/25’s 30% growth. Nonetheless, corporate earnings for S&P 493 are expected to bottom out in 2H/25 and gradually improve quarter by quarter in 2026. Market estimates project revenue and profit growth for the S&P 500 to be around 6%-7% and 15%, respectively, this year.
Five Major Trends and Four Major Risks: The 2026 Lunar New Year Investment Map
Following five market trends: EM>US, SPW>SPX, SME>Large Cap, Cyclical>Defensive, and Hardware>Software. Emerging markets continue to outperform US stocks, with the S&P 500 returning +1.4%, lagging behind the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at +10.4%. The equal-weighted S&P (SPW) outperforms the market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPX), with SPW up 5.9% versus SPX’s 1.4%.
Small- and mid-cap stocks outperform large caps, with Russell 2000, S&P 400, and S&P 600 up +7.9%, +8.6%, and +9.7% year-to-date, respectively, leading major blue-chip indices. Cyclical stocks outperform defensive sectors, with Goldman Sachs’ US cyclical vs. defensive index (excluding commodities) up 1.85% YTD, indicating relative strength.
AI hardware outperforms software stocks, with TSMC’s January revenue surpassing NT$400 billion, and four hyperscalers’ annual capital expenditure reaching US$660 billion. Compared to concerns about AI disrupting software, the hardware sector is full of imagination. As of February 11, Goldman Sachs’ AI hardware and software indices YTD performance are -15.6% and +20.8%, respectively.
On the risk front, four assets are tracked: IGV, MOVE, silver, and Bitcoin. Recent sharp US stock volatility can be traced back to declines in software stocks, crypto corrections, and a collapse in precious metals like silver. NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang recently dismissed AI bubble concerns, but the IGV ETF’s float has hit a five-year low, with institutional buying signals emerging. Caution is advised as short-term reversals may occur due to position adjustments or stop-loss triggers.
The MOVE index has fallen to a four-year low of 65, below the historical average of 92.7. Such low bond market volatility may not yet reflect underlying risks, and mean reversion could occur in the future.
