PANews, February 17 — Cryptocurrency analyst Axel stated in a personal blog post that this bear market cycle began around October 2025 with a historical high of approximately $125,000. The Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator confirmed this, reaching a cycle peak of 0.02676 in December 2025. This indicator typically lags behind price movements and is now reversing downward.
Historically, such reversals have often marked the start of an accumulation phase lasting from 1.1 to 2.5 years. The charts clearly show the previous two accumulation cycles: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both cycles started in a very similar manner, with the green line reversing from the peak into a sustained downtrend, with prices following downward. The current pattern is structurally identical.
If historical patterns repeat, this accumulation phase could last at least until the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation extending into mid-2027. A key confirmation signal would be the 90-day moving average reversing downward and breaking below the 365-day moving average (0.02622) from above. Before this crossover occurs, there remains a possibility of a mid-cycle reset and a restart of the upward trend.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Ethereum Price Breaks Through $2300, BitMine Increases Holdings and Staking ETF Boost ETH Price Surge
Ethereum (ETH) price broke through $2,300, surging over 10% and reaching a six-week high, with significant institutional buying pressure. U.S. spot Ethereum ETF inflows hit record highs, with active corporate purchases—BitMine acquired nearly 61,000 ETH. Analysts predict ETH has potential for further gains. The overall market recovery is primarily driven by inflows from institutional and corporate capital.
GateNews4m ago
Bitcoin Surpasses $75,000: Short Liquidations Exceed $330 Million, Continuous ETF Inflows Drive Market Rally
Bitcoin's price broke through $75,000 on March 17, hitting a six-week high, accompanied by large-scale short position liquidations. Crypto market liquidations in the past 24 hours approached $498 million, with mainstream altcoins also performing strongly. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant institutional capital inflows, boosting market confidence. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin has further upside potential, with resistance at $79,000 and support at $72,000.
GateNews34m ago
Bitcoin Holds Strong at $70,000! On-Chain Data Reveals "Collective Selling Wave," Retail Investors Emerge as Biggest Selling Pressure
Under Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin faced widespread selling pressure, particularly from retail holders. According to Glassnode data, the market is experiencing heavy selling pressure, with the accumulated trend score declining to 0.04, indicating that retail and small-to-medium investors are reducing their positions significantly. Despite this, Bitcoin's resilience against the decline has surprised market observers.
区块客57m ago
NVIDIA Stock Weakens After Major GTC Announcements: Why AI Chips and Trillion-Dollar Expectations Failed to Boost the Market?
Despite NVIDIA unveiling major AI and gaming technologies at the GTC conference, its stock price was unable to continue rising. Analysts believe this is due to market profit-taking following positive news. At the same time, investors are paying close attention to the actual profitability of AI investments and the sustainability of cloud computing expenditures, leading to cautious stock price movements. NVIDIA's industry leadership remains unchanged, but the market is now more cautious about the alignment between valuation and growth.
GateNews1h ago
Bitcoin Breaks Through $75,000: Capital Inflow and Supply Tightening Create Momentum, Probability of Reaching $80,000 Rises to 56%
Bitcoin surged during Asian early trading, breaking through $75,000 and reaching new highs, with gains extending to an eighth consecutive trading day, signaling recovery in market sentiment. Declining exchange inflows and heightened whale trading activity reinforce the upward momentum. Capital is shifting from gold to Bitcoin, though macro uncertainty remains. $75,000 has become key support, and future trends face testing.
GateNews1h ago
Why AI Trading Bots Struggle to Gain Approval? Institutional Advantages and Liability Risks Reveal the Truth Behind Crypto Trading
While cases of AI trading bots generating profits have emerged in the market, mainstream tech companies have not yet formally participated, primarily due to liability risks and structural market limitations. Although some traders have profited using AI models, widespread homogenization and easily replicable strategies make it difficult for retail traders to maintain lasting advantages. As technology advances, the difficulty of profiting from generic AI continues to rise over time.
GateNews1h ago
