The former head of BitMEX – Arthur Hayes – has backtracked from his previous prediction about Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The exec said the largest crypto asset is unlikely to reach $70,000 this year, but 2024 could be bullish for the entire market.
While speaking on the ‘What Bitcoin Did podcast,’ Hayes predicted that Bitcoin’s tryst above the $70,000 “barrier” will only transpire next year while indicating that the upcoming halving event in 2024 will be crucial in determining the trend.
“We have got this having next year, 2024. I think that’s gonna be a good year. I don’t think we get up to $70,000 this year. Next year is when we cross that barrier and then we get the blow-off top 2025, 2026. And then it’s Armageddon.”
He further explained that the Armageddon he talks about refers to a major “societal” event, such as a war, driven primarily by printing more money and social discontentment around the world. As a result of rising geopolitical tensions, Hayes believes the crypto asset is at risk of facing yet another collapse during 2025-26.
“It doesn’t necessarily have to be super straightforward, it’s just we have this situation, we have this Tinder box of too much money, no trust, and people trying to eke out a living for themselves.”
Hayes said that the practice of quantitative easing – increasing the money supply – is basically putting a “powder keg together of a situation that is going to be exploding in Q3 and Q4 this year” while adding that this is what’s going to bring about tremendous volatility in Bitcoin.
BitMEX’s co-founder had penned down an essay visualizing a scenario where the US dollar declines and the potential of Bitcoin being adopted as a savings vehicle by countries across the world. Hayes’ prediction of the US dollar losing its hegemony comes in the backdrop of several global trading corridors slowly moving away from settling trade in the currency.
In the future, such “imbalances” within the blocs will be settled by “neutral reserve currency” similar to gold or crypto, which are not connected to any particular country, the exec said.
Even as Bitcoin struggled to break above $30,000 this month, long-term holders have been accumulating at a fast pace. In fact, this trend suggested that the crypto asset is being increasingly used as a “buy-and-hold asset,” according to a recent Bitfinex report, while the current stagnancy in the market is being viewed as an opportunity to stash more.
Featured Image Courtesy of Bloomberg
