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#永续合约与杠杆交易 Seeing the Space project, I am filled with a veteran’s caution. 10x leverage, 1000x returns, 50% buyback and burn mechanism... I’ve seen this narrative too many times since 2021.
First, let’s talk about the history of UFO. A market cap of $1.5 billion, in the top 100 on CMC, sounds impressive, but I need to point out a detail that’s easily overlooked—the project emphasizes "distribution capability and community consensus" rather than "insider advantages." This kind of talk always sounds like an excuse for someone. The real question is, how are the participants from that round doing

#预测市场 Seeing Polymarket's plan to migrate out of Polygon and build their own L2, honestly, this is worth pondering.
On the surface, it appears to be a technical upgrade, but I have to be honest—don't ignore the underlying risk signals. The Polygon outage directly impacted their business, which shows what? It shows that entrusting your fate to others means you have to bear their failures. But building your own L2 isn't necessarily a good thing either; it involves high costs, significant risks, and requires deep technical expertise.
I've been following many projects in the prediction market spa

#美联储政策 The signal triggered by a soft labor market that raises expectations of interest rate cuts, I have to sound the alarm for everyone.
I've seen too many people get severely hurt during interest rate cut cycles in the past two years. The logic is simple: Federal Reserve cuts rates → liquidity loosens → funds seek an exit → the crypto space becomes a hot money paradise. It sounds like a bullish signal, but what is the reality? Repeated rounds of market manipulation and harvests by big players.
The non-farm payroll data on October 11 confirms employment stagnation, which means the market wi

#预测市场 The probability of Bitcoin surpassing 100,000 on Polymarket has dropped from 11% to 10%, and I find it a bit amusing. These days, market sentiment has shifted to caution, essentially meaning that the year-end FOMO is starting to fade.
Remember a few months ago when the headlines were full of "Bitcoin will definitely break 100,000"? Now, the market is voting with data—32% of people are still betting on 95,000, and 18% are even betting it will break 80,000. This is the most authentic side of prediction markets—they ruthlessly burst those speculative bubbles.
Having been active on the bloc

#比特币价格走势 Seeing Tom Lee's explanation, I have to say honestly—this is a classic case of "wearing new shoes while walking the old path." Short-term defense combined with long-term optimism sounds impressive, but from another perspective, it highlights a key issue: even within professional institutions, there are huge disagreements about the future market.
Having been in the crypto world for many years, what I fear most is this kind of "playing both sides" rhetoric. The chairman is bullish about a new all-time high in January 2026, while analysts predict a drop back to 60,000-65,000 in the firs

#代币锁定期 Seeing the Pre-TGE news of BTW, I have to remind everyone of a detail—the token lock-up period does not disclose the unlock schedule. I've seen this trick too many times.
In my early years, I also participated in many early-stage projects. At that time, I didn't understand deeply what "lock-up period" meant, thinking it was just a simple freeze for a few months. Only later did I realize that the key is not the lock-up itself, but **information asymmetry**—the project team knows the unlock schedule but does not announce it in advance. What does this imply? It means they can flexibly adj

#量子计算威胁 Recently, the discussions around quantum computing have become a bit tiresome.
On one side, Nic Carter says 1.7 million Bitcoins are at risk of being attacked, creating anxiety; on the other side, Adam Back, Wang Chun, and others say it's a bubble and there's no issue in the short term. Guess what I think? Both sides have problems.
To start with the conclusion: quantum computing indeed poses a threat to Bitcoin, but not now. Bitcoin Core developer Jameson Lopp's attitude is the most realistic—no worries in the short term, but the upgrade will take 5 to 10 years. This time window is ve

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing Vitalik's remarks made me realize how many times I've been cut by social media over the years. Do you remember those panic-driven calls? "This coin will definitely reach $100" or "This project is absolutely the next Ethereum"—spoken with conviction, but no one is responsible once you turn around.
Now I understand the logic behind prediction markets: only real money can make people tell the truth. On Polymarket, the probability of a UK civil war is only 3%, yet some big V influencers' tweets can create nationwide panic. The difference is here—one is risking money, the ot

#比特币市场周期 Seeing the internal divergence of opinions at Fundstrat, I have to be honest—this is the most authentic reflection of the market.
Sean Farrell spoke very candidly: they serve aggressive investors with over 20% exposure to crypto assets, relying on active rebalancing to outperform the market; while Tom Lee serves institutional giants with 1-5% Bitcoin allocation, requiring long-term discipline. Two sets of logic, two different time horizons—can their views really be the same?
But this is exactly what I want to remind you—don't be hijacked by the words of influencers. Predictions like

#加密资产投资策略 Seeing Arthur Hayes's report, my first reaction wasn't bullish forecast numbers, but rather the detail that he transferred 508 ETH to Galaxy Digital—this detail is worth pondering.
Having been in the industry for so many years, I’ve learned a simple truth: people who tell good stories often speak the truth through their actions. RMP is equivalent to a new version of QE, liquidity is being released, Bitcoin returning to 124,000 or even pushing to 2 million—sounds very exciting, but the question is, if you're so confident, why sell during the rebound?
It's not that his logic is flawed

#比特币市场分析 When analysts say that Bitcoin might reach $170,000 in three months, my first reaction isn't excitement but caution. I've heard this bold prediction too many times — every time, reputable analysts cite historical data, pointing out that RSI was oversold five times and each time it rebounded, so this time it will surely rebound too. The logic sounds convincing, but reality is often harsher.
The problem is that such predictions often become the reason for market participants to chase the rally. When everyone is expecting that $170,000 figure, the big players are actually offloading dur

#流动性与利率政策 After reading this round of discussions about liquidity and Bitcoin, I have to say—these macro analysts' differing opinions precisely reveal a fact that those of us who have been through on-chain battles have known for a long time: no one can accurately predict short-term movements, but risk signals cannot be ignored.
Luke Gromen holding onto his position from $30,000 all the way to now still dares to turn short-term bearish, and the logic behind this is worth pondering. The statement "Only quantitative easing can be loose, otherwise it's tightening" is quite sharp—essentially indic

#比特币价格与估值 Seeing Tom Lee's team's series of "contradictory" forecasts, I have to be honest: this is not disagreement, it's viewing the same scene through different lenses.
Sean Farrell suggests Bitcoin could drop to 60-65K, while Tom Lee calls for 200K. It seems like one is bearish and the other bullish. But a closer look at their logic reveals—Farrell targets aggressive investors with over 20% crypto asset allocation, focusing on active rebalancing and short-term market outperformance; Lee serves traditional large institutions, with only 1-5% allocated to BTC and ETH, emphasizing long-term s

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent statements, I suddenly recalled the mistakes I made during the 2021 market rally. At that time, everyone was advocating "liquidity easing, assets will only go up," and I also followed the trend by going all-in on some projects. As a result, when inflation data was released, everything took a sharp turn downward.
This time, Powell said they would keep interest rates stable until spring, with the key phrase being "inflation remains high." What does this mean? It indicates that the Federal Reserve's current stance is hawkish, and the monetary

#比特币价格预测 Seeing this, I have to be honest. Tom Lee is calling for Bitcoin to hit 200,000 while his team says it might drop to 60,000. The scene is indeed quite heartbreaking. But think about it carefully, this actually reflects the biggest lesson I've learned over the years on the chain: different roles, different time cycles, should have different strategies.
The problem is, retail investors simply can't tell the difference. What we see is "experts contradicting themselves," then FOMOing and going all-in, or just completely clearing their positions. This is the perfect time to harvest the l

#美联储政策 The Bank of Japan's rate hike this time is really worth paying close attention to. A 98% probability essentially means it's a done deal, moving from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995 — the era of ultra-low interest rates for 30 years is coming to an end.
The issue lies in the chain reaction. Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. Once Japanese bond yields rise, funds will inevitably withdraw from the U.S. market to chase higher yields. This directly threatens the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. Think about it carefully: this year, the decline in U.S. Treasury

#市场周期与投资策略 When I saw this set of data from the Brazilian market, a word flashed through my mind: differentiation.
A 43% activity growth sounds exciting, but a closer look at the underlying logic reveals risks. The average investment amount jumps from a few hundred dollars to over 1000 dollars, and 18% of people are starting to diversify assets — this is not a sign of market maturity, but a sign of FOMO heating up. I’ve seen this scene in 2017 and 2021; each time, retail investors begin "serious investing," and it’s also when the bagholders are most densely accumulated.
The most warning sign

#加密监管政策 Seeing five platforms like Circle and Ripple being approved for federal trust bank licenses, my first reaction isn't excitement but caution. This is indeed a policy-level positive, but don't be fooled by the words "listed."
Remember the wave in 2017? Every time a regulatory "friendly" signal appeared, retail investors would start FOMO, only for the big players to harvest profits in one go. This time is different: policies are indeed improving, but that precisely means the market will become more regulated and transparent—those projects surviving on information asymmetry are doomed.
Wh

#加密货币监管政策 Seeing the recent notices from the State Council and Douyin, I have to say—over the years, the tricks in the crypto world have indeed become more and more elaborate. From packaging virtual currencies as smuggling products related to tobacco to using blockchain and digital assets as shells for illegal financial activities, this combination of tactics makes it impossible for newcomers to distinguish what is truly risky.
My own experience with pitfalls has taught me that every regulatory action is a warning bell for us. It’s not about completely staying away from this market, but about

#AI交易应用 Seeing Tether plan to integrate AI features into their wallet, my first reaction was to be cautious. Over the past two years, AI concepts have been everywhere, and many projects have been riding the AI wave to scam investors. Have I seen enough of that?
But upon closer inspection, Tether's move actually makes logical sense — integrating local private AI, supporting only mainstream assets (like Bitcoin, USDT, and other core tokens). It doesn't seem like a gimmick "for AI's sake." The key point is that they haven't issued new tokens, haven't created hype, and haven't even promoted it mu