# 比特币市场周期

#比特币市场周期 Seeing Tom Lee's words reminds me of the ups and downs of copy trading Bitcoin over the years. A 100x Supercycle sounds very alluring, but in practice, not many can stick it out. I've followed several experts and witnessed their perseverance during market downturns. To be honest, that kind of agony is not something an average person can endure.
From practical experience, the key to profiting in such a Supercycle lies in the allocation strategy and psychological management. I usually divide the funds into 3-5 parts, allocating them according to the different styles of traders.

#比特币市场周期 Looking back at the historical cycles of Bitcoin, this recent fall reminds me of the pullback in May 2021. At that time, BTC also fell nearly 30% from its peak, and market sentiment was equally gloomy. However, history is always remarkably similar. During every bull-bear transition, there are always those who are anxious and believe that this time "it's really over." But the fact is, those who persist in buying during pessimistic sentiment often reap substantial rewards in the next bull run.
Currently, BTC has fallen below $100,000 and the 50-week moving average, and the market i

#比特币市场周期 The supercycle of Bitcoin is indeed impressive. Since 2017, BTC has experienced multiple significant pullbacks, but still achieved a 100-fold rise. This fully illustrates the high volatility and long-term growth potential of crypto assets. Tom Lee's viewpoint is worth following; he believes that ETH may be entering a similar supercycle. As investors, we need to remain calm and rational, focusing on fundamentals and long-term trends, rather than being disturbed by short-term fluctuations. Next, I will closely track the on-chain data of ETH, including whale address activities, DeFi

#比特币市场周期 The fluctuations in the Bitcoin market always excite people! The latest predictions show that BTC has a 46% chance of falling below $90,000 in November, which is indeed thought-provoking. Although short-term fluctuations inevitably cause anxiety, I remain confident about the future of Crypto Assets. Every rise and fall of Bitcoin reshapes the financial landscape and paves the way for a decentralized future. Let’s broaden our perspective, follow long-term trends and technological innovations, rather than being troubled by short-term prices. Now is a great time to learn, accumulate, an

#比特币市场周期 Seeing this analyst's viewpoint, I can't help but recall my own experiences from years ago. New investors getting on board are always full of expectations for the market, but once they incur losses, they easily panic. However, I now understand that the Bitcoin market cycle is a long-term process, and short-term fluctuations do not represent the overall trend.
Although there are currently no signs of a complete surrender among short-term holders, we cannot let our guard down. A loss of 20%-40% is already a significant blow for many. I advise everyone to remain rational, manage

#比特币市场周期 Seeing Yi Lihua's words, what flashed through my mind was the 2017 market rally. At that time, some people kept shouting "Now is the best buying point" at the bottom range, but most still chased in at high levels. What's the difference? It's whether you can truly understand the rhythm of the cycle.
The interest rate hike in Japan is indeed a turning point. Looking back at history, every major liquidity shift has rewritten the script of the crypto market—2020's liquidity injection triggered that bull run, while the tightening in 2022 hit everyone hard. Now, with the opposite operation

#比特币市场周期 Seeing the internal divergence of opinions at Fundstrat, I have to be honest—this is the most authentic reflection of the market.
Sean Farrell spoke very candidly: they serve aggressive investors with over 20% exposure to crypto assets, relying on active rebalancing to outperform the market; while Tom Lee serves institutional giants with 1-5% Bitcoin allocation, requiring long-term discipline. Two sets of logic, two different time horizons—can their views really be the same?
But this is exactly what I want to remind you—don't be hijacked by the words of influencers. Predictions like

#比特币市场周期 Seeing Dalio's perspective, I have a slightly different view. He says that Bitcoin is difficult for central banks to hold on a large scale due to transaction transparency and hacking risks. This logic was indeed valid in the past, but the situation is changing now.
The Bitcoin market cycle itself is evolving—from early pure speculation to now, where institutions are gradually entering and exploring national-level asset reserves. This process is essentially a continuous validation of transparency and security. El Salvador has already taken the lead, and micro-level central bank attemp

#比特币市场周期 Dalio's words sound like he's cooling down big institutional holdings in Bitcoin 🤔 But from another perspective, doesn't this just indicate that the supply pattern has already been locked in?
Central banks are afraid of transparency and risk, so they dare not enter the market aggressively. The remaining chips are even more scarce. For retail investors like us, being able to get in now is already a win. When the true cycle top arrives, Bitcoin lacking large institutional buyers will only surge in a smaller liquidity environment.
To put it simply, hesitation from institutions is actua

#比特币市场周期 After looking at Santiment's analysis, social media panic sentiment has not yet reached the necessary level, which means the market's true bottom may not have arrived. The figure of 75,000 is right in front of us, and with a current decline of 14.77%, it indicates there is still ample downside potential.
The key point is that this statement hits the pain point of our copy trading—most people are still optimistic at this moment, expecting a short-term reversal. Anyone who has experienced several cycles knows that the real bottoming process is often accompanied by a full release of pes