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Recent movements in the cryptocurrency market appear nervous but not chaotic. The sharp decline of Bitcoin to $60 000 is not a local "breakdown" of the market nor a collapse of trust in the asset, but part of a broader macroeconomic picture.
Cryptocurrencies are increasingly behaving like full-fledged financial assets, sensitive to liquidity, interest rates, and global risk appetite.
A notable moment was the recent purchase of Bitcoin worth about $75 million by Strategy. Despite significant unrealized losses on previously acquired positions, the company continues to increase its corporate BTC reserves. This is an important signal for the market: long-term institutional demand remains even during a correction phase.
Such a model, I believe, is both a source of support and a potential point of tension. Price behavior around the average purchase cost of large holders and their ability to attract capital will influence whether this strategy fuels the next growth or adds pressure in case of prolonged decline.
The current drop of Bitcoin to around $60 000 occurred amid a general "risk-off" mode. The correlation of BTC with gold reached 78%, and with the US stock market — over 60%. In my opinion, this is an important observation: BTC is not isolated from the global financial system. It falls and rises along with expectations for interest rates, the dollar, and global liquidity. As investors reduce risk across all asset classes — from stocks to precious metals — the crypto market remains under pressure.
The derivatives market played a separate role. In one day, positions worth about $1.4 billion were liquidated, the vast majority of which were long positions with leverage. This is a classic scenario of accelerating correction: initial decline driven by macroeconomic factors is amplified by forced liquidation, adding inertia to the downward movement. In my view, such movements rarely indicate fundamental weakness of the asset but almost always point to an overloading of the market with expectations of rapid growth.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a zone where the short-term fate of the market is being decided. The price tests the area around $65 000 — a level that coincides with several important benchmarks: the previous cycle's historical maximum and the midpoint of the entire rally from the lows of 2022 to recent peaks. Oversold conditions according to indicators are at extreme levels, creating conditions for a technical rebound. However, a rebound alone does not mean a trend reversal — for that, the market needs to recover above key resistances and stabilize in traditional financial markets.
It is also important to understand the broader structure of the movement. What appears to be a sharp deterioration in sentiment is largely a normal rotation within the cycle. Assets that grew the fastest last year are now correcting more strongly — this is where the main profits and the highest number of overloaded positions are concentrated. Less "overheated" segments of the market are holding steadier. This is not a sign of the end of the cycle but its redistribution.
Recent movements in the cryptocurrency market appear nervous but not chaotic. The sharp decline of Bitcoin to $60 000 is not a local "breakdown" of the market nor a collapse of trust in the asset, but part of a broader macroeconomic picture.
Cryptocurrencies are increasingly behaving like full-fledged financial assets, sensitive to liquidity, interest rates, and global risk appetite.
A notable moment was the recent purchase of Bitcoin worth about $75 million by Strategy. Despite significant unrealized losses on previously acquired positions, the company continues to increase its corporate BTC reserves. This is an important signal for the market: long-term institutional demand remains even during a correction phase.
Such a model, I believe, is both a source of support and a potential point of tension. Price behavior around the average purchase cost of large holders and their ability to attract capital will influence whether this strategy fuels the next growth or adds pressure in case of prolonged decline.
The current drop of Bitcoin to around $60 000 occurred amid a general "risk-off" mode. The correlation of BTC with gold reached 78%, and with the US stock market — over 60%. In my opinion, this is an important observation: BTC is not isolated from the global financial system. It falls and rises along with expectations for interest rates, the dollar, and global liquidity. As investors reduce risk across all asset classes — from stocks to precious metals — the crypto market remains under pressure.
The derivatives market played a separate role. In one day, positions worth about $1.4 billion were liquidated, the vast majority of which were long positions with leverage. This is a classic scenario of accelerating correction: initial decline driven by macroeconomic factors is amplified by forced liquidation, adding inertia to the downward movement. In my view, such movements rarely indicate fundamental weakness of the asset but almost always point to an overloading of the market with expectations of rapid growth.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a zone where the short-term fate of the market is being decided. The price tests the area around $65 000 — a level that coincides with several important benchmarks: the previous cycle's historical maximum and the midpoint of the entire rally from the lows of 2022 to recent peaks. Oversold conditions according to indicators are at extreme levels, creating conditions for a technical rebound. However, a rebound alone does not mean a trend reversal — for that, the market needs to recover above key resistances and stabilize in traditional financial markets.
It is also important to understand the broader structure of the movement. What appears to be a sharp deterioration in sentiment is largely a normal rotation within the cycle. Assets that grew the fastest last year are now correcting more strongly — this is where the main profits and the highest number of overloaded positions are concentrated. Less "overheated" segments of the market are holding steadier. This is not a sign of the end of the cycle but its redistribution.
